Comments

  • Admin
    5.11.2018 18:39:38

    This is a tutorial of building betfair bot, and testing trading strategy, therefore I leave many things unanswered, but of course for those who are interested they could draw their own opinion. Here is another video:

    https://youtu.be/HlmTx53oTdY

    1)

    Liability increases from number of bets placed after goal is scored, as in many cases the problem with fake score occurred there were placed two additional bets. This is actually good when testing a strategy as for those who are not able to judge all risks in running such strategies, these fake score bets showed what could go wrong.

    Fakes score can be fixed by double checking score results at set time interval, or by checking/getting scores from more reliable sources than betfair ones.

    2)

    When testing this strategy I did not set closing market bet position when required profit is reached. Actually “Close Market Bet Position” bot was executed but with unrealistic profit target, as I was more interested to learn what maximal liability can be reached just by requiring 2 Euro payout.

    No  0 – 0 correct score bet was placed, again when you think about this strategy you will get maximal profit on matches ended by 0 – 0, I do not have current statistics but depending on league there is around 5 – 8%  games ending with 0 – 0 draw.

    This strategy can be executed by closing 0 – 0 in profit when using reasonable profit, so strategy could end on correct score market, avoiding this way risk of big liability on match odds trading when a lot of goals is scored.

    3)

    When executing this strategy on match odds market only, you can set maximal liability of potential bet, or match time at what bot does not place such bet when first goal is scored, as odds after goal is scored depends not only on team who scored but of course on match time remaining to the match end. If you watched my videos you could see that a lot of such bets introducing big liability were placed at 85 and more minute of the match.

    4)

    None strategy is 100% profitable, you must learn to take loss as well, when I start testing any strategy I do not set Loss parameter, I do so when fine tuning promising strategy, and that can be judged very simply, just by counting number of total trades, and losing ones.

    So bot should be programmed, not just take required profit, but depending on match time, potential liability after next goal is scored, and of course when score is locked in our favor, close bet position in profit can be switched off.

    5)

    As said before most difficult part is to take loss, to judge that you need to execute a lot of trades.

    6)

    In my tests I did not selected matches on which I run this strategy, again it is clear that profitability depends on this selection process as well. I think anyone after reading this post and watching some of my videos should realize that big risk for this strategy are goals scored at the end of the match so after 90 minute. Some statistical methods of choosing “right” matches to trade on could help avoid risk of big bet liabilities.

  • Mir.
    5.11.2018 17:08:08

    ad) Results!
    Yes, it is specific strategy for selected markets, but It is crazy!
    A huge! liability, risky betting on small odds at the end of the matches etc.

    What about liquidity? I doubt that at the last minute one bet can reverse the betting result.

    I wonder how to set the strategy differently to make it profitable, but not so risky (if possible, on real markets)
    Otherwise, thanks for testing this strategy.

  • Mir.
    5.11.2018 12:48:17

    Oh crap!

    I never check the running of the scores...
    Thousands of matches, sorry, not for me. But I can check if score decrease on monitored markets, how many and where.

    After all, it is interesting. Thanks

  • Admin
    5.11.2018 12:39:10

    Checking results:

    https://youtu.be/RYxd64S1B2s

     

  • Admin
    5.11.2018 11:11:30

    Fake scores from betfair live score provider is really big problem. I asked betfair about that, here is their reply:

    https://forum.developer.betfair.com/forum/developer-program/general-betting/26180-var-rules

    As you can see from my video:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8csHYSPyUM8

    In the Bundesliga match: FC Bayern Munich - SC Freiburg, there was no VAR decision:

    https://fcbayern.com/en/matches/profis/bundesliga/2018-2019/fc-bayern-muenchen-sc-freiburg-03-11-2018-liveticker#content-navi

    On the official Bayern web page there is live score provided by sportsdata, and no fake score was reported by sportsdata.

    I think there is “insider trading” on fake scores to be blamed. This is not first occurrence on fake score on Sunday matches.

  • Admin
    29.10.2018 17:49:39

    Automated trading is any algorithm choosing your bet selection automatically. In this strategy a bet selection is driven by goal scored event in a football match, so it can be called automated trading strategy.

    Yes, you can run automated strategies using bfexplorer in 24/7 mode.

    This strategy is good example to introduce bots for bettors, or to those whose place bets manually as it is simple, but can be executed with different parameters, for instance no placing bet on correct score market, or starting placing bets only from set match time when goal is scored.

    The trigger bot code can be updated to not place bets but instead just notifies you about goal scoring, so bot would automatically display match and selection/team which scored goal, then you can make your bet decisions manually. Have a look at how that works in in-play horse racing strategy: Watch Favourite bot.

    As said before this strategy profitability or risk affinity depends on number of scored goals, and time when last goal is scored. Biggest profit is made on 0 – 0 match results, biggest loss for more goals (3 and more, when score goes from one team to other and/or draw) and not match bet after goal scored in last minute.

    Top leagues matches starts on Friday, but will leave running some matches with bigger liquidity through this week as well.

  • Mir.
    29.10.2018 3:15:25

    yes, you are bringing solution for specific strategy.
    It is great!

    ------------------
    But there is question what is automated trading? Linear execution of the trading bots on selected markets? Or unattended strategy which works a weeks or a months...
    In my opinion every strategy has similar results on few or many markets. If exists Score mismatch will be better calculate with this on 0,23 % markets, not on 10 %.
    Btw liability. High liability isn´t problem if there is long term positive edge. But what I saw on videos... it would not leave me calm.

    I look forward for new results in testing mode.

  • Admin
    28.10.2018 20:01:01

    Maybe the VAR is used, but in such case the market should be suspended till VAR decides.

  • Admin
    28.10.2018 17:32:43

    Today I made my own bot and found some time for testing.

    Again I noticed one false score on SPAL – Frosinone match, at 32 minute of the match it was reported 0 – 1, then later in next minute the score was fixed to the right one: 0 – 0. When checking another source of score data, in 34 minute of the match was awarded yellow card only. I do not know whether betfair has problem with their feed or just provider of football live data plays with us its own strategy, as again prices reacted to that false score, betfair suspended and reopened the market, and new prices formed.

    Here are some videos:

    Back Goal Strategy Test 1

    Back Goal Strategy Test 2

    Back Goal Strategy Test 3

    So I tested this strategy on 7 markets with total profit 24.72 Euro, but as I mentioned before to win just 25 Euro in total on some matches my liability reached 192 Euro to win 4 Euro.

    I will run blindly this strategy in following days on each match from top of European leagues to see what could be won or lost.

    It is a better idea to run this strategy on selected matches using either manual selection or automation by match statistics similar to this bot: Football Trigger Bots

  • Mir.
    28.10.2018 0:57:12

    1) Thumb up for the possibilities in BFExplorer. And the latest results of this strategy are great

    In my opinion:
    2) For the full automation of football markets you only have to use one market and without closing the betting positions.
    3) It is better to combine more different strategies in one market! If someone place bets on more markets is certain that one of them will be weak. (And fee policy is more friendly)

  • Admin
    27.10.2018 19:14:13

    Today I tested this strategy on eight matches so here are my thoughts.

    It seems to be a good strategy for automatic/bot football trading.

    As mentioned in my post I changed the bot trigger code to place payout bets when goal is scored by team adding correct score 0 – 0 bet liability and previous liability on match odds selection to goal bet.

    I did not change the bot trigger code, I left it as a simple coding task for anyone who would like to test this strategy as well.

    It is a good idea as well to set “Place Bet” bot parameter MaximumOddsDifference as not in all cases market odds stabilized after goal is scored, so without this parameter setting (I set it to 3) your bet could be matched on unfair odds/price.

    If you read the strategy specification, in each step it is repeated: … back with greening … what is from my point of view nonsense as if you would like to green up your position your bet stake amount would go quite high after couple unsuccessful back bets placed.

    I used “Close Market Bet Position” bot, so your bet position is closed on all selections you place your bets on. In my test I used 2 Euro for correct score 0 – 0, and 2 Euro payout for “Back Goal” bot, 3 Euro profit for “Close Market Bet Position” bot.

    When you think about this strategy then in case when no goal is scored your 0 – 0 back bet could be closed to required profit as well, unfortunately none of my tested matches went to 0 – 0, so I missed to test such scenario.

    What could go wrong with this trading strategy?

    Back bet liability of placed match bets when score goes from leading goal to draw and back (through many score changes) could reach dangerous amount. In my test maximal reached liability of placed bets was only 42 Euro.

    This trading strategy requires relevant score data, as a matter of fact, betfair score data are stable, but yesterday when testing the code wrong score appeared on one match played in Serbia, wrong score 0 – 1 appeared for couple minutes, even betfair odds reflected that goal had been scored, but after a while right score 0 – 0 appeared again, so “bot trigger” fired again back bet.

    Late goals at the end of the match, without chance to get matched placed bets, or reaching dangerous liability of placed bets. For such scenarios the strategy requires to close bet position at 85 minute. In my test I programmed the “bot trigger” code to close “bot trigger” execution, at 85 minute of match time, so no “Back Goal” bets are placed.

    “Close Market Bet Position” bot had not been setup to close bet position at loss. This feature requires to run more tests, it should be found optimum time at what the bot trigger stops its execution, so any bet position is closed at that time, at profit or loss. This trading feature should be executed not only by match time but also by match score. It is safer to close bet position when just one scored goal could change our bet position.

    In my test for 5 from 8 matches, had been closed bet position (greened up) in reached profit. In some matches, even when match score suggested, that we are in 90% profit position, for instance match  Sheff Utd – Wigan, the bot greened up our bet position at 80 minute when scored was 4 – 2 for Sheff Utd.

    The question is, what is better for entire profitability of this strategy, to leave running our bet position at some match point, or better to close bet position for profit or loss?

    Here is link to my video from today’s test:

    Testing Wave Strategy Bot Trigger

     

  • Admin
    13.9.2018 0:14:11

    Lupuente has Spanish version of Windows 10 installed on his computer. The script code is compiled by bfexplorer to dll assembly, so bfexplorer can executed such bot assembly.

    In Lupuente case during compilation compiler returns error message:

    Mscorlib.dll missing or not found, but the assembly is actually on his computer, in the folder:

    C:\Windows\Microsoft.NET\Framework64\v4.0.30319

    During teamviewer session I did not manage to find problem on his computer, so I solved it by compiling the script to assembly. To compile script assembly on your computer you need either Visual Studio (Community) or Microsoft Code with installed support for F#.

    On the forum you can find many posts showing how to program and compile bot assembly.

  • Admin
    12.9.2018 16:59:48

    You need to download script to your computer, and ensure that it is in format you can see on github page:

    https://gist.github.com/StefanBelo/e49bdc9fdd60c580a212b688190dd33c

    It is code and bfexplorer compiles it executable assembly, so there must right code without code errors or wrong text formatting.

    Have a look at here, on this post where you can see, what IDE you can use to write or update bot trigger script, and be sure that all is ok:

    Betfair Bot Programming for Non-Developers

  • Admin
    12.9.2018 16:53:51

    There are quite a lot of examples of using bot trigger script, for instance here in this post: Double or Bust - Betfair Trading Bot for Horse Racing

    You can see (from 15 seconds of the video), how bot trigger is setup with bot: “Execute Trigger Bot”.

    Download bot trigger script to you computer, and repeat bot setup seeing in this video.

    Keep in mind that it wise to test any script in practice mode, as bot script really just place bets without any strategy, just hoping that bets will be matched making zero risk profit per selection, which is hedged at set time.

    You need to test it on more races to estimate your Profit/Loss percentage, or just try to introduce parameters which could work for you better. It is more an introduction to bot trigger programming than presentation of 100% profitable strategy.

  • LAPUENTE1
    12.9.2018 16:33:53

    I CHARGE THE TRIGGER TRIGGER TRIGGER BOT, AS YOU SHOW ON THE VIDEO, BUT THIS MESSAGE APPEARS TO ME WHEN I GIVE YOU A BEGIN:
    FAILED TO CREATE THE BOT TRIGGER
    ERRORS: ASSEMBLY REFERENCE MSCORLIB.DLL WAS NOT FOUND OR IS INVALID.

    PLEASE CAN YOU SAY HOW I RESOLVE?

    I AM LOOKING FORWARD TO YOUR RESPONSE

  • Mir.
    26.8.2018 17:06:26

    Thanks for hint.

    Meanwhile, I'm trying to monitor whether it will be important to compare the dependency of rank change, frequency of rank change, odds at the time of change of rank, direction of trend... etc.

    I think it will not have decisive weight, but it will help to place bets on the market (dutching on the speculative odds of selected runners)

  • Admin
    25.8.2018 20:22:36

    Betfair historic data are in json format, so you must know how to process them. I do not know what betfair has been thinking when releasing data in that format as most people are not programmers.

    What does it mean for you?

    As many others like you who may bought that data, after opening them have no fuck idea what they just bought from betfair, so such people end on freelancer web sites hiring someone to export from those data what they want.

    So my hint for you google for instance:

    "betfair data json" site:www.freelancer.com

    And from that web site, when data are still available you can download some PRO data for free, of course you must be registered on web site to download data.

  • Mir.
    25.8.2018 19:08:33

    Is there anybody who has data from UK Horse Racing? Historical data from BF - Advanced plan.
    Sample, 1-2 months. Only In-play data.

    I want to try analyze betting on 1,2,3,4,... runners with depending on the rank and their change of the rank. Thx.

  • Admin
    24.8.2018 10:29:14

    Keep in mind that to your valid betfair api activation there are three services, so three different types of problems could occur. You can check your subscription status by login on bfexplorer web site and clicking on menu item User / My Subscription Details.

    My authorization service registers your details only, activation of betfair api access to your betfair account is done on betfairs servers, and in some cases this procedure could take more time, that is the way how betfair does this procedure.

    When first attempt to activate your betfair api access fails, white for a while and repeat login procedure again. In this process there could be two problems: your new subscription code is not generated from betfair servers, or your generated subscription code is not activated on betfair servers.

    Yes, from the nature of betfair api activation there could be a short time when your betfair api activation is not activated, mainly when you use bfexplorer in fully automatic mode, as the activation process requires re-login procedure, so closing bfexplorer and login again. If you use bfexplorer this way them better solution for you is to buy 1 year subscription, but again when subscription expires you need to re-login, that is actually betfair requirements to activate betfair api.

    For common users there are no such problems as he/she runs bfexplorer on daily bases, so reactivation of api access is no problem, as times of login differs.