Betfair developers finally implemented live chart update for market traded prices and volume on web site. It seems to be not yet final release as yesterday they again switched to the old version: Betfair Price History Graphs Here is my short video showing how it looks like. Loaded data are limited ...
From Bet Angel forum: Automation - Drip back automation I'm looking to create some automation to drip back a selection from current price every 20 ticks for £10 x 4. For example back over 1.5 goals for £10 at 1.5, 1.7, 1.9 and 2.1. Any help would be appreciated. Bfexplorer Solution: I ...
From MarketFeeder forum: Is it now possible to see all prices in a trigger. Just wondered if it is now possible to use all prices in a trigger without having to have the ladder open? Similar question on Bet Angel forum: Servant - Is this possible? I just wondered if the following is possible as I ...
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http://bfexplorer.net/Products/ProductFeatures
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This is a tutorial of building betfair bot, and testing trading strategy, therefore I leave many things unanswered, but of course for those who are interested they could draw their own opinion. Here is another video:
https://youtu.be/HlmTx53oTdY
1)
Liability increases from number of bets placed after goal is scored, as in many cases the problem with fake score occurred there were placed two additional bets. This is actually good when testing a strategy as for those who are not able to judge all risks in running such strategies, these fake score bets showed what could go wrong.
Fakes score can be fixed by double checking score results at set time interval, or by checking/getting scores from more reliable sources than betfair ones.
2)
When testing this strategy I did not set closing market bet position when required profit is reached. Actually “Close Market Bet Position” bot was executed but with unrealistic profit target, as I was more interested to learn what maximal liability can be reached just by requiring 2 Euro payout.
No 0 – 0 correct score bet was placed, again when you think about this strategy you will get maximal profit on matches ended by 0 – 0, I do not have current statistics but depending on league there is around 5 – 8% games ending with 0 – 0 draw.
This strategy can be executed by closing 0 – 0 in profit when using reasonable profit, so strategy could end on correct score market, avoiding this way risk of big liability on match odds trading when a lot of goals is scored.
3)
When executing this strategy on match odds market only, you can set maximal liability of potential bet, or match time at what bot does not place such bet when first goal is scored, as odds after goal is scored depends not only on team who scored but of course on match time remaining to the match end. If you watched my videos you could see that a lot of such bets introducing big liability were placed at 85 and more minute of the match.
4)
None strategy is 100% profitable, you must learn to take loss as well, when I start testing any strategy I do not set Loss parameter, I do so when fine tuning promising strategy, and that can be judged very simply, just by counting number of total trades, and losing ones.
So bot should be programmed, not just take required profit, but depending on match time, potential liability after next goal is scored, and of course when score is locked in our favor, close bet position in profit can be switched off.
5)
As said before most difficult part is to take loss, to judge that you need to execute a lot of trades.
6)
In my tests I did not selected matches on which I run this strategy, again it is clear that profitability depends on this selection process as well. I think anyone after reading this post and watching some of my videos should realize that big risk for this strategy are goals scored at the end of the match so after 90 minute. Some statistical methods of choosing “right” matches to trade on could help avoid risk of big bet liabilities.
Mir.
ad) Results!
Yes, it is specific strategy for selected markets, but It is crazy!
A huge! liability, risky betting on small odds at the end of the matches etc.
What about liquidity? I doubt that at the last minute one bet can reverse the betting result.
I wonder how to set the strategy differently to make it profitable, but not so risky (if possible, on real markets)
Otherwise, thanks for testing this strategy.
Mir.
Oh crap!
I never check the running of the scores...
Thousands of matches, sorry, not for me. But I can check if score decrease on monitored markets, how many and where.
After all, it is interesting. Thanks
Admin
Checking results:
https://youtu.be/RYxd64S1B2s
Admin
Fake scores from betfair live score provider is really big problem. I asked betfair about that, here is their reply:
https://forum.developer.betfair.com/forum/developer-program/general-betting/26180-var-rules
As you can see from my video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8csHYSPyUM8
In the Bundesliga match: FC Bayern Munich - SC Freiburg, there was no VAR decision:
https://fcbayern.com/en/matches/profis/bundesliga/2018-2019/fc-bayern-muenchen-sc-freiburg-03-11-2018-liveticker#content-navi
On the official Bayern web page there is live score provided by sportsdata, and no fake score was reported by sportsdata.
I think there is “insider trading” on fake scores to be blamed. This is not first occurrence on fake score on Sunday matches.
Admin
Automated trading is any algorithm choosing your bet selection automatically. In this strategy a bet selection is driven by goal scored event in a football match, so it can be called automated trading strategy.
Yes, you can run automated strategies using bfexplorer in 24/7 mode.
This strategy is good example to introduce bots for bettors, or to those whose place bets manually as it is simple, but can be executed with different parameters, for instance no placing bet on correct score market, or starting placing bets only from set match time when goal is scored.
The trigger bot code can be updated to not place bets but instead just notifies you about goal scoring, so bot would automatically display match and selection/team which scored goal, then you can make your bet decisions manually. Have a look at how that works in in-play horse racing strategy: Watch Favourite bot.
As said before this strategy profitability or risk affinity depends on number of scored goals, and time when last goal is scored. Biggest profit is made on 0 – 0 match results, biggest loss for more goals (3 and more, when score goes from one team to other and/or draw) and not match bet after goal scored in last minute.
Top leagues matches starts on Friday, but will leave running some matches with bigger liquidity through this week as well.
Mir.
yes, you are bringing solution for specific strategy.
It is great!
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But there is question what is automated trading? Linear execution of the trading bots on selected markets? Or unattended strategy which works a weeks or a months...
In my opinion every strategy has similar results on few or many markets. If exists Score mismatch will be better calculate with this on 0,23 % markets, not on 10 %.
Btw liability. High liability isn´t problem if there is long term positive edge. But what I saw on videos... it would not leave me calm.
I look forward for new results in testing mode.
Admin
Maybe the VAR is used, but in such case the market should be suspended till VAR decides.
Admin
Today I made my own bot and found some time for testing.
Again I noticed one false score on SPAL – Frosinone match, at 32 minute of the match it was reported 0 – 1, then later in next minute the score was fixed to the right one: 0 – 0. When checking another source of score data, in 34 minute of the match was awarded yellow card only. I do not know whether betfair has problem with their feed or just provider of football live data plays with us its own strategy, as again prices reacted to that false score, betfair suspended and reopened the market, and new prices formed.
Here are some videos:
Back Goal Strategy Test 1
Back Goal Strategy Test 2
Back Goal Strategy Test 3
So I tested this strategy on 7 markets with total profit 24.72 Euro, but as I mentioned before to win just 25 Euro in total on some matches my liability reached 192 Euro to win 4 Euro.
I will run blindly this strategy in following days on each match from top of European leagues to see what could be won or lost.
It is a better idea to run this strategy on selected matches using either manual selection or automation by match statistics similar to this bot: Football Trigger Bots