Article

Football - Back Goal Strategy Bot Trigger

From Bet Angel forum: Automation for on the WAVE strategy / Soccer

Could someone explain or make a automation file for the following:

 1 - Min. 00:00 - Back the correct score 0-0

 2 - If goal back Team who scored with greening

 3 - If goal from opposite back draw with greening

 4 - If goal form A or B ... again back the leader with greening...

 5 - Green all at 85 Min.

 Is this possible? I think yes but how?

Bfexplorer Solution:

This football trading strategy can be executed by custom bot trigger by orchestrating execution of two bots: “Place Bet” and “Close Market Bet Position”

By default the bot trigger uses three bot settings (two of them set by “Place Bet” bot, and one set by “Close Market Bet Position”):

Back 0 – 0

Back Goal

Close My Football Bet Position

The user did not specify its staking plan, so initial stakes and the way how “Place Bet” bot places back bet on correct score 0 – 0 selection, and then later on team selections when goal is scored must be set correctly.

The user asks to green up bet position, but what happens when goals is scored, mainly his staking plan is not defined. When another goal is scored by other team, and bot trigger already placed back bet, then of course previous bet creates loss position so next bet stake should be calculated returning previous los maybe.

In my initial bot trigger code such stake calculation is not defined, “Back Goal” bot setting is at least set to place bet with Stake Type: Payout, so payout must be bigger than stake amount placed by “Back 0 – 0” bot.

Have a look at the bot trigger code in line 188, here you can add a new stake amount adding loss from previous bets.

When testing this bot trigger on two markets, in both cases bot traded profit, but only because in both cases first scoring team won.

The bot trigger executes “Back Goal” bot only when selection on which the bot is executed changes, so for instance when team scores again so winning team does not changes the bot is not executed.

Test this bot in the practice mode.

FootballWaveStrategyBotTrigger.fsx

Comments ( 11 )


  • Admin
    27.10.2018 19:14:13

    Today I tested this strategy on eight matches so here are my thoughts.

    It seems to be a good strategy for automatic/bot football trading.

    As mentioned in my post I changed the bot trigger code to place payout bets when goal is scored by team adding correct score 0 – 0 bet liability and previous liability on match odds selection to goal bet.

    I did not change the bot trigger code, I left it as a simple coding task for anyone who would like to test this strategy as well.

    It is a good idea as well to set “Place Bet” bot parameter MaximumOddsDifference as not in all cases market odds stabilized after goal is scored, so without this parameter setting (I set it to 3) your bet could be matched on unfair odds/price.

    If you read the strategy specification, in each step it is repeated: … back with greening … what is from my point of view nonsense as if you would like to green up your position your bet stake amount would go quite high after couple unsuccessful back bets placed.

    I used “Close Market Bet Position” bot, so your bet position is closed on all selections you place your bets on. In my test I used 2 Euro for correct score 0 – 0, and 2 Euro payout for “Back Goal” bot, 3 Euro profit for “Close Market Bet Position” bot.

    When you think about this strategy then in case when no goal is scored your 0 – 0 back bet could be closed to required profit as well, unfortunately none of my tested matches went to 0 – 0, so I missed to test such scenario.

    What could go wrong with this trading strategy?

    Back bet liability of placed match bets when score goes from leading goal to draw and back (through many score changes) could reach dangerous amount. In my test maximal reached liability of placed bets was only 42 Euro.

    This trading strategy requires relevant score data, as a matter of fact, betfair score data are stable, but yesterday when testing the code wrong score appeared on one match played in Serbia, wrong score 0 – 1 appeared for couple minutes, even betfair odds reflected that goal had been scored, but after a while right score 0 – 0 appeared again, so “bot trigger” fired again back bet.

    Late goals at the end of the match, without chance to get matched placed bets, or reaching dangerous liability of placed bets. For such scenarios the strategy requires to close bet position at 85 minute. In my test I programmed the “bot trigger” code to close “bot trigger” execution, at 85 minute of match time, so no “Back Goal” bets are placed.

    “Close Market Bet Position” bot had not been setup to close bet position at loss. This feature requires to run more tests, it should be found optimum time at what the bot trigger stops its execution, so any bet position is closed at that time, at profit or loss. This trading feature should be executed not only by match time but also by match score. It is safer to close bet position when just one scored goal could change our bet position.

    In my test for 5 from 8 matches, had been closed bet position (greened up) in reached profit. In some matches, even when match score suggested, that we are in 90% profit position, for instance match  Sheff Utd – Wigan, the bot greened up our bet position at 80 minute when scored was 4 – 2 for Sheff Utd.

    The question is, what is better for entire profitability of this strategy, to leave running our bet position at some match point, or better to close bet position for profit or loss?

    Here is link to my video from today’s test:

    Testing Wave Strategy Bot Trigger

     

  • Mir.
    28.10.2018 0:57:12

    1) Thumb up for the possibilities in BFExplorer. And the latest results of this strategy are great

    In my opinion:
    2) For the full automation of football markets you only have to use one market and without closing the betting positions.
    3) It is better to combine more different strategies in one market! If someone place bets on more markets is certain that one of them will be weak. (And fee policy is more friendly)

  • Admin
    28.10.2018 17:32:43

    Today I made my own bot and found some time for testing.

    Again I noticed one false score on SPAL – Frosinone match, at 32 minute of the match it was reported 0 – 1, then later in next minute the score was fixed to the right one: 0 – 0. When checking another source of score data, in 34 minute of the match was awarded yellow card only. I do not know whether betfair has problem with their feed or just provider of football live data plays with us its own strategy, as again prices reacted to that false score, betfair suspended and reopened the market, and new prices formed.

    Here are some videos:

    Back Goal Strategy Test 1

    Back Goal Strategy Test 2

    Back Goal Strategy Test 3

    So I tested this strategy on 7 markets with total profit 24.72 Euro, but as I mentioned before to win just 25 Euro in total on some matches my liability reached 192 Euro to win 4 Euro.

    I will run blindly this strategy in following days on each match from top of European leagues to see what could be won or lost.

    It is a better idea to run this strategy on selected matches using either manual selection or automation by match statistics similar to this bot: Football Trigger Bots

  • Admin
    28.10.2018 20:01:01

    Maybe the VAR is used, but in such case the market should be suspended till VAR decides.

  • Mir.
    29.10.2018 3:15:25

    yes, you are bringing solution for specific strategy.
    It is great!

    ------------------
    But there is question what is automated trading? Linear execution of the trading bots on selected markets? Or unattended strategy which works a weeks or a months...
    In my opinion every strategy has similar results on few or many markets. If exists Score mismatch will be better calculate with this on 0,23 % markets, not on 10 %.
    Btw liability. High liability isn´t problem if there is long term positive edge. But what I saw on videos... it would not leave me calm.

    I look forward for new results in testing mode.

  • Admin
    29.10.2018 17:49:39

    Automated trading is any algorithm choosing your bet selection automatically. In this strategy a bet selection is driven by goal scored event in a football match, so it can be called automated trading strategy.

    Yes, you can run automated strategies using bfexplorer in 24/7 mode.

    This strategy is good example to introduce bots for bettors, or to those whose place bets manually as it is simple, but can be executed with different parameters, for instance no placing bet on correct score market, or starting placing bets only from set match time when goal is scored.

    The trigger bot code can be updated to not place bets but instead just notifies you about goal scoring, so bot would automatically display match and selection/team which scored goal, then you can make your bet decisions manually. Have a look at how that works in in-play horse racing strategy: Watch Favourite bot.

    As said before this strategy profitability or risk affinity depends on number of scored goals, and time when last goal is scored. Biggest profit is made on 0 – 0 match results, biggest loss for more goals (3 and more, when score goes from one team to other and/or draw) and not match bet after goal scored in last minute.

    Top leagues matches starts on Friday, but will leave running some matches with bigger liquidity through this week as well.

  • Admin
    5.11.2018 11:11:30

    Fake scores from betfair live score provider is really big problem. I asked betfair about that, here is their reply:

    https://forum.developer.betfair.com/forum/developer-program/general-betting/26180-var-rules

    As you can see from my video:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8csHYSPyUM8

    In the Bundesliga match: FC Bayern Munich - SC Freiburg, there was no VAR decision:

    https://fcbayern.com/en/matches/profis/bundesliga/2018-2019/fc-bayern-muenchen-sc-freiburg-03-11-2018-liveticker#content-navi

    On the official Bayern web page there is live score provided by sportsdata, and no fake score was reported by sportsdata.

    I think there is “insider trading” on fake scores to be blamed. This is not first occurrence on fake score on Sunday matches.

  • Admin
    5.11.2018 12:39:10

    Checking results:

    https://youtu.be/RYxd64S1B2s

     

  • Mir.
    5.11.2018 12:48:17

    Oh crap!

    I never check the running of the scores...
    Thousands of matches, sorry, not for me. But I can check if score decrease on monitored markets, how many and where.

    After all, it is interesting. Thanks

  • Mir.
    5.11.2018 17:08:08

    ad) Results!
    Yes, it is specific strategy for selected markets, but It is crazy!
    A huge! liability, risky betting on small odds at the end of the matches etc.

    What about liquidity? I doubt that at the last minute one bet can reverse the betting result.

    I wonder how to set the strategy differently to make it profitable, but not so risky (if possible, on real markets)
    Otherwise, thanks for testing this strategy.