Notes from circa 1992/3
The Racing Game – The way Ahead
it’s been a long time in the making.
lets hope the waiting is worthwhile!
After three weeks betting activity in 1945 I realised that winning was not going to be the doddle that I thought.
I decided that research was required to find the elusive winners. From this an obsession was born within me to find a method to beat the bookies, although I was aware that it was the punters (like me) who were providing the cash being paid out and not the bookies.
This obsession drove me on – to analysing the racing records from all possible angles, often spending more time each week than I did working at my full time job. During this lengthy period (The next 45 years) I gathered a good insight into most of the aspects of the horseracing scene, although I have attended less than a dozen race meetings in my lifetime. Early on I decided in my own mind that the answers to the problem would be a purely mathematical one fully mechanical in its application and able to override all situations. All of my research was taken from the original book form of the S.C.H.B. including the Sports Forum pages and Race-form Annuals, and as a side-line, attempts to crack the numerous “Systems” that were being advertised and which gave lists of past successes (All at high S/Ps!)
So what about this purely mathematical method?
Little progress was made until I put down on paper what I thought were the factors that were preventing me from winning in the long term.
These factors were :=
1. The racehorse ……..Horses cannot read ! they do not know when the money is down and they are expected to win their race.
Far too much time was being spent on analysing races and form of the racehorse, this time was too valuable to waste particularly as it was not proving to be successful (for me).
2. The losing sequences..... No amount of analysis, elimination of races, selection or isolation of criteria will result in negating the effect of losing sequences.
3. The stakes.......... It has been stated in many publications that “Level Stakes” is the method to be employed when backing racehorses. I contend that using level stakes makes it extremely difficult to create high long -term profits, it drives the required strike rate up and reduces the number of bets and drives the resultant S/Ps down and the stakes up.
4. The starting prices.......... Looking for higher S/Ps to compensate for lack of winning selections only adds to the problems in 2 and 3 above.
5. The number of bets made....... Ever fewer and fewer selections as more and more races are eliminated as :=
Too many runners, maidens, ladies, amateur, selling, handicaps etc. etc. all to improve the strike rate.
Was it any wonder that I was not winning long term?