Blog Article

Dealing with swings - in play

From Bet Angel forum:

The problem
I'm sure it's the nature of trading that some wild swings come into play on a runner that's leading the field. A case in point was one that I had placed a back bet on last friday. It was sitting on odds of 3.75->3.5 for the 1st 30 seconds of the race (a 1 mile chase). The odds then swung up to 5 and then to 7.0, before descending back down thro 5.0 on it's way back to 3.75 ish. This resulted in my stop-loss being triggered during this churn period and what should have been a profitable trade, turned into a £'ss loss.

My thoughts
I appreciate fully that the obvious reason for this spike was a burst of profit taking but just wondered if there were any strategies (in terms of automation rules) that could determine that the price was drifting due to trading, rather than the fact that the runner was no longer in contention. I'm certain it would be possible to determine a pattern using a range of data points, but not so sure if such a comparison is available as a simple rule in the automation...

What I've tried so far
I've tried setting my loss greening up rule to only trigger after 45 seconds in play - not a great idea, but avoided a few false losses in some cases. I also manually removed the rule when I saw it spiking and turned it back on when the spike had settled. Again, not a great idea and was purely a Heath Robinson approach to circumventing my loss rule triggering. So, that's about it really!!

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