Article

Project Inspiration 4

Rule 1. There are less than 15 declared runners in the race Declared runners means the NUMBER of horses running in a race, before any withdrawals.

Rule 2. Our horse is a clear favourite. This rule comprises of two parts: 1. Our horse must have odds of less than 4.0 2. There must be an odds gap of 2.0 between our horse and the second favourite.

Rule 3. Our horse is running within 30 days of it’s last race.

Rule 4. Our horse ran well in it’s last race It’s important that our horse has good recent form for it to be likely to run well. This rule may seem vague at first glance, so let’s get to the specifics. Looking at our horse’s last race, we need a finish within ½ length of the winner for each 1 furlong the race is long. For example, Dunnscotia’s last race was 6 furlongs, so we require it either to have won this race or to have finished within 3 lengths of the winner.

Rule 5. The going is similar to our horse’s last run The vast majority of horses run better or worse depending on the ground conditions, and many have a specific going which they perform the best on. To ensure our horse performs to the best of it’s ability, we want it to be running on ground similar to that it’s ran well on previously. The different categories of going and their abbreviations are listed below:

Turf Firm (Fm) Good to Firm (GF) Good (Gd) Good to Soft (GS) Soft (Sft) Heavy (Hy) All Weather Standard (St) Fast (Fst) Slow (Slw)

To pass this rule, our horse must be running within 1 category of going to it’s last run. For example, if our current race is on firm ground, our horse’s last run must have been on either firm or good to firm. If our current race is on good ground, our horse’s last race must have been on good, good to firm or good to soft ground.

If our horse is running on an all weather surface (standard, fast or slow), it’s last race can also have been on any all weather surface. Horses that are moving from turf to all weather, or vice versa, will not pass this rule.

6. Race distance is within 2 furlongs of last run Similarly to the reasoning behind rule 5, we want our horse to have proven form over a race distance similar to it’s current run. We already know the distance of Dunnscotia’s last race from the previous screenshot ¬ 6 furlongs. We find the distance of the current race on the Racing Post card: The current race is also 6 furlongs, meaning Dunnscotia has passed all six system rules and therefore qualifies as a bet.

Placing Bets Now all we need to do is find our stake, and place our bet. Go back to the relevant race on Betfair, and choose the ‘PLACE’ market..

STAKING PLAN (2% gain)

With this staking plan, we are aiming to increase our bankroll by 2% each bet. To find our target profit, divide your bankroll by 50. Then to find our stake divide by the (current available odds ¬ 1). Finally, we take Betfair’s 5% commission into account by dividing again by .95. For example with a £1000 bankroll, and current available odds of 1.95: Target profit = £1000 / 50 = £20 Stake = £20 / .95 / .95 = £22.16

Comments ( 1 )


  • Admin
    19.11.2015 18:09:33

    Last days I had been working on racingpost data provider, you can see it in my test bot using spreadsheet.

    The racingpost data provider extends a set of data providers I developed before for some betfair bot projects: timeform, olbg, sportinglife.