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Maria Laying Strategy with BFExplorer
Posted in Betfair bot for this week, algorithm and strategy by formbet
I would like to post a suggestion for Bot Of The Week and was wondering if this is at all possible. Here is what I would like to do -:
1) I have designed a laying strategy using a number of statistical factors which in testing has a 94% strike-rate so far
2) The stakes on the lays depend very much on a) the odds of each selection and b) the size of the bank with different stakes depending on the odds and size of the bank. The maximum lay price is 10/1 (11.0 decimal)
3) I would like to be able to input a list of all the qualifying lays and then for BFExplorer to run through, check the odds ranges of each selection to lay and automatically lay all the selections in one hit depending on the odds and bank size of that day. The bank and bet size is not adjusted after each bet but only on a daily basis so there is no need to adjust after each race.
Here are the full details of the Maria Staking plan below, can you let me know if this can be considered for a bot and if you have any other questions then please let me know. For the month of December I will also be more than happy to share the lay bets with the BfExplorer forum -:
MARIA STAKING PLAN
Like all staking plans which are essentially mathematical formulas, The Maria staking plan can be broken down into rules.
1) - There are 3 distinct odds ranges to be aware of. The following is based on a starting bank of £3000
- Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £30 (liability is always under £75 in this price range)
- Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £18 (liability is always between £46.80 - £115.20 in this price range)
- Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £12 (liability is always between £78 - £132 in this price range)
- Anything above 11 or 10/1 is left alone.
2) - If making profits, the stakes are increased on a daily basis in proportion to the betting bank on a daily basis. For instance, if after day 1 the betting bank is at £3300 then 1% would now be £33 rather than £30.
3) - If after a days betting the cumulative betting bank has decreased the stakes are left alone unless 35% of the highest level of the bank is lost, when the stakes are re-calculated based on the new "65%-sized bank"
For example if your using £3000 as your starting betting bank, you would keep the same stakes used until your betting bank went below £1,950 when those backer's stakes would become £19.50, £11.70 and £7.80 until the bank gets back up to £3,000 again (or - even down to £1267.50 - a further 35% loss).
The 35% drop is always worked out from the highest point of the bank.
Thanks a lot
Dave
Dutching and then hedging automatically
Posted in Betfair bot for this week, algorithm and strategy by formbet
Something I like to do is pick 2 or sometimes 3 horses in each race to 'dutch' from the top 2 or 3 on my ratings ie. secure a profit no matter which one of the 2 or 3 selections wins.
However, I often take this one step further by putting a lay bet 'in play' on each of the dutched runners, say at a fixed price of 1.31 for exampe to recoup the entire dutch stake. This way, if one of the horses gets in contention, then gets matched at 1.31 and for some reason goes on to lose the race, I have made sure I get back the entire dutch stake. If it goes on to win then I reduce my profit but this is something I am willing to sacrifice. Sometimes even 2 selections will get matched at 1.31 and one goes on to win so you actually make more profit. It is quite a good strategy but quite time consuming to do race by race so I would love to automate it.
So my idea of an example bot would be the following -:
1) Input a list of 2 or 3 horses in each race.
2) 2-3 minutes before each race, have the bot automatically dutch the runners for a set stake, say 20GBP at the current back odds.
3) Once dutch bets have been matched then place a lay bet 'in-play' on each runner at 1.31 for 20GBP.
This sounds quite complicated but it is something I do manually at the moment so I would imagine that it could be automated somehow. I look forward to seeing if it can make 'bot of the week' and if any other questions please ask.
Dave
