Many horseplayers dismiss horses that went off as the post-time favorite and lost in their previous race. Often these horses are not worth playing back, yet there are occasions when they are worth backing.
In my early data collection, I looked at all beaten favorites, regardless of lengths behind, finish position, or any other factors. The raw results were encouraging as shown in the table above. The win rate was 23 percent and a straight win bet on these horses was showing a loss of only 5.4 percent. This is still better than playing the post-time favorite in every race, but we can do better!
From BetAngel forum:
I'm trying to create a bot for the Little Acorns method. I use the Betdaq version (but I also have the Pro version), and I have figured out how to set the lay rules up: lay fav between 1.5-2 odds etc...
I've tried to find out if this has been done before but couldn't see it posted anywhere.
I was just wondering, whether is it possible to put in a rule to ignore favourites that are beaten favourites? Not sure if this is possible with the Betfair version, if they have access to this info like Betdaq does.
And also how I would go about setting up the staking plan of 2 2 4 6 10 16.....
(I know some users are against staking plans and they like to mention it in the posts, I already know all about why you shouldn't do that, just wanted to know if it's possible to set this up haha :) ).
I implemented this strategy inspiring by “beaten favourites” data. And here is my test from today.
The bot strategy evaluates 5 values taken from previous horse race results, and these values are then factored for each horse in the race.
This way we have got list of nominated selections on which can be executed preset action bot, basically we can just place bet on the first nominated selection, start trading session, and/or place dutch bets on nominated selections.
In my test I used back/lay trading with 3 ticks profit, and back ditching on 3 best nominated selections.
The trading bot accepted only horses that have been traded <= 9.0, and ditching bot placed dutch bets only when at least 3 nominated selections were chosen.
For the first day of testing quite good results, as all trades were in profit, and from 10 back dutching bets, 6 bets were in profit, all together 36.55 + 23.74